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Natural History of Back Pain

Historic Comparison of likely MSK Recovery

  • 70-80% of patients recover over a 12.5 week period with medically trained Doctors or Chiropractors[1].
  • More recent work has shown that 41% of people do not respond to typical Chiropractic Care[2].
  • Whereas 40% of people do not recover with best current medical care within 3 months[3].

Natural History of MSK pain

A ‘Probability of Recovery’ (natural history) has been devised for back pain from an Australian cohort showing an expected rate of recovery[4]. Agreeing with the above studies at the 6 months mark of a point prevalence of about 40% (I found this by plotting a graph of the Australian study results).

My Track Record, within 6 weeks was better than the ‘probability of recovery’ at 6 and 12 months. And typical Chiropractic Care and Best Medical Care. My results were sustained at 6 months.

Psychosocial Prognostic Factors in MSK Pain

Important prognostic factors of statistical strength include ‘having an idea of what to do and what not to do’ and ‘understanding the nature of (their) pain’ (what is it and where is it coming from in the context of my life) are strong prognostic indicators to early recovery.

[1] Kane R L et al Manipulating Patients The Lancet (1974) June 29 p1334

[2] Axen I and Leboeuf-Yde C Typical Chiropractic Patients- can they be described in terms of recovery patterns? Chiropractic and Manual Therapies 2017; 25:23

[3] Traeger AC et al Pain Education to Prevent Chronic Low Back Pain: a Study Protocol for a Randomised Controlled Trial BMJ Open 2014;4 p.1

[4] Henschke N et al Prognosis in Patients with Recent Onset Low Back Pain in Australian Primary Care: Inception Cohort Study. BMJ 2008;337:a171

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